New Delhi, March 7 -- China has forecast that its economy will expand by 5% in 2025, the same as last year. Given its exposure to trade uncertainty, this is quite ambitious. With US President Donald Trump's tariff actions taking aim at China as a key target, shipments between the world's two largest economies will suffer disruption.

Beijing has deployed retaliatory tariffs. Moreover, China faces weakening demand at home amid a property-sector slump, even as its attempt to shift from an investment-led growth model to a consumption one has failed so far.

Beijing seems to be counting on a fiscal stimulus. It plans to issue ultra-long special treasury bonds worth roughly $182 billion this year, up from $42 billion last year. This will widen...