India, March 2 -- Last Friday's GDP numbers were best summarised by HSBC chief India economist Pranjul Bhandari in a research note, "a beautiful past, predictable present". The December quarter numbers ended up entirely in line with analyst estimates of 6.2% despite a 100 and 60 basis point upward revision in 2023-24 and 2022-23 annual numbers of 8.2% (to 9.2%) and 7% (to 7.6%), respectively. We will know in May whether the March quarter numbers meet the assumed 7.6% target required to take 2024-25 GDP growth to the estimated 6.5%.

Analysts expect next year's (2025-26) GDP growth to be in the ballpark of 6.5%. This is pretty much in line with India's potential growth rate. Of course, there are contingencies such as a normal monsoon and d...