India, April 16 -- For a heavily agriculture-dependent population, the India Meteorological Department (IMD)'s prediction of above normal monsoon this year would normally be good news, with obvious implications for harvest.That, in turn, has significant import for both rural consumption and food prices in the country. But it would be pragmatic to temper expectations given IMD's poor record on accuracy - a Hindustan Times analysis shows the accuracy of IMD's first forecasts is a low 42%, lower than the chances of correctly calling a coin toss.

Even if the rainfall were to be adequate and IMD spared another off-mark forecast - private sector weather forecaster Skymet predicts a normal monsoon - the headline number means little giventhatthe...