India, March 16 -- February's inflation number of 3.6% is better than what most analysts expected it to be. This is largely on account of a fall in vegetable prices despite inflationary tailwinds from non-food non-fuel items. Core inflation, which measures the non-food non-fuel basket of the consumer price index (CPI), came in at 4% in February, the highest this value has been since November 2023.

What is the larger message behind the inflation numbers? Whether or not the headline number will align itself to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s target of 4% has pretty much become a function of food prices, which are often driven by seasonal shocks. The rising trend in core inflation in the latest numbers is mostly a reflection of things suc...