Bangladesh, April 5 -- After more than two years of relentless bloodshed, the grim calculus of the Ukrainian war has finally begun to shift. Not because of some dramatic battlefield reversal or diplomatic breakthrough, but because of an emerging, uncomfortable consensus across the Western establishment: the war, as currently fought, is unwinnable for Ukraine.

Beneath the soaring speeches, official slogans, and media cheerleading, diplomats, military strategists, generals, and even some members of the press have started to whisper the same thing – peace will not be born from a Ukrainian victory, but from negotiation and compromise.

The future everyone pretends not to see is already being drafted behind closed doors. At the heart of...