Bangladesh, Nov. 11 -- Lebanon is once again standing at the edge of a precipice, facing a combination of internal fragmentation, external pressure, and geopolitical vulnerability that is pushing the country toward a potential conflict with catastrophic consequences. The latest escalation was triggered by reports that US envoy Tom Barrack has given Beirut an ultimatum: disarm Hezbollah by the end of November, or risk an Israeli military operation. Though some observers argue that Washington is simply raising the stakes ahead of negotiations, Lebanon does not enjoy the luxury of such high-risk maneuvering. The situation on the ground is already too volatile, too tense, and too exposed to leave anything to chance.

Inside Lebanon, the polit...