Bangladesh, Feb. 7 -- Every election season produces its own cottage industry of speculation. Who will win, who will lose? Who will defect at the last minute. Bangladesh is no exception. What is different this time is not the noise, but the note underneath it—a low, steady hum of disbelief. The question many are now asking, quietly but insistently, is not who will form the next government, but whether there will be a meaningful election at all. And if there is one, whether the country can survive its aftermath without sliding into national chaos.

Anyone can call it cynicism. But history gives it another name: pattern recognition.

On paper, the arrangements look complete. Polling schedules announced. Administrative postings finaliz...