Bangladesh, Nov. 22 -- The ground beneath the Rohingya crisis has shifted once again-and this time, perhaps more dramatically than at any point since the genocide of 2017. Over the past week, the Arakan Army (AA), one of Myanmars most powerful ethnic armed groups, has launched a sweeping new offensive across critical areas of northern Rakhine State. In doing so, it has tightened its hold on territory that was once bitterly contested, transforming not only the military landscape but also the political and humanitarian future of the region.

Yet this escalation has been overshadowed by global attention on other conflicts-from Gaza to Ukraine to the South China Sea. As a result, one of the most consequential developments for nearly a million...