Bangladesh, Jan. 20 -- One year into the term of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Lebanon finds itself navigating one of the most fragile and contradictory moments in its modern history. The debate over the presidents role, vision and capacity to act rages on in a political environment chronically incapable of consensus and within a society that, despite decades of war, crisis and collapse, still struggles to translate hardship into collective agreement. Yet to view Lebanons presidential predicament in isolation would be deeply misleading. The challenges facing Joseph Aoun are inseparable from the profound regional and global earthquakes now reshaping the international order.

At first glance, Lebanons problems may appear marginal when set...