India, June 13 -- Early Friday morning, Israel launched a military operation against Iran-a move long anticipated in strategic circles. It is not a development that will be welcomed in New Delhi, irrespective of the fact that one of India's closest strategic partners, Israel, is expected to emerge stronger from this latest episode in what has become a season of missiles and conflicts.

A decisive Iranian defeat-or worse, a state collapse-would carry quietly alarming consequences for India, reshaping its strategic environment in ways that are not immediately visible but deeply destabilising over time.

India has built its westward orientation-both in terms of connectivity and energy security-on the foundational assumption that Iran remains...