India, Dec. 28 -- The end of the Cold War created a powerful sense of optimism in international politics. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the long-standing ideological and military confrontation between East and West appeared to be over. Many observers believed the world was entering a more peaceful, cooperative and prosperous era. Yet, while the early post-Cold War years did look promising, subsequent developments revealed that this optimism was only partly justified.

As a result, if we try to look ahead to next year without considering conflict, we quickly find it impossible. So much of what is happening globally, politically, socially, and economically, is being driven by wars, rivalries, and the aftershocks of violence. From E...