Dhaka, Oct. 3 -- The world shifted this week. Vladimir Putin showed that he knows how deeply wounded he is. He knows that his rule is under existential threat if Russia is completely humiliated in Ukraine. He also showed the world that his strategy in this context is to escalate. He is signaling that his best bet for survival is to cast the war against Ukraine as a struggle against the entire West.

He's like a wounded tiger, who in desperation, and knowing his strength is weakening, decides to go on the attack. This week I learned a bit about how American officials are thinking about this situation.

Putin's wounds are now pretty obvious. American intelligence officials believe it is unlikely that the Russian Army in Ukraine will simply ...