France, Nov. 22 -- Hecalls himself "General do Povo," meaning "General of the People", and has expressed confidence in his chances since the courts barred the candidacy of his main opponent, Domingos Simões Pereira, leader of the historic PAIGC party. But is Umaro Sissoco Embaló's win a sure thing?

The 53-year-old former army general is seeking a second term in the 23 November legislative and presidential elections, and has been touring the country canvassing for weeks.

Should he win, he will become the first incumbent president to be re-elected in three decadesin the small West African nation of 2.2 million inhabitants, marked by instability.

Since gaining its independence from Portugal in1974, Guinea-Bissau has seen at leas...