New Delhi, April 22 -- The timing could hardly have been less propitious. Just as the world economy was showing signs of stabilizing, the odds of a policy-induced global recession have risen significantly. The latest update to the Brookings-FT Tiger (Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery) index reveals a mixed picture, with the financial index declining and private-sector confidence crumbling even as macroeconomic data (which lags other indicators) suggests a more benign scenario.

Obviously, the biggest factor is US President Donald Trump's tariff policy, which has disrupted world trade and fuelled turmoil in financial markets, undermining growth prospects that had looked promising at the start of the year. The US economy per...