New Delhi, Feb. 1 -- Dear reader,

Please note that I am writing this piece on Saturday, before the budget is presented.

Last week, I wrote bulls appeared to be on the ropes. Yet the markets notched up gains as geopolitical tensions seemed to abate. Iranian leaders sent feelers indicating openness to peace talks to avoid US military action. Russia and Ukraine appeared to be coming to terms with the possibility of negotiating. With the US dollar index falling last week, emerging markets, including India, received a sentimental boost. Safe-haven buying in bullion peaked on Thursday before crashing on Friday. According to the classic Dow theory of technical analysis, any traded asset that falls 20% is considered to be in bear market territo...