New Delhi, April 16 -- The Union government expects the turbulence from global trade wars to have little impact on the country's economic growth and budget calculations, according to an official assessment of India's growth scenario and the impact of the Trump tariffs. Thanks to a normal monsoon, a pause in US reciprocal tariffs and moderate oil prices, the economy is on track to meet growth projections in FY26, two people privy to the assessment said.

The finance ministry had projected a 10.1% economic growth in nominal terms, while the Economic Survey 2024-25 had predicted a 6.3-6.8% real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for FY26. With the growth projection remaining intact, the government's fiscal calculations will stay as planned,...