New Delhi, Sept. 30 -- India's bilateral trade with the US reached $132 billion in 2024-25. In just five months of 2025-26, India notched up about half of last year's number. That momentum now faces disruption: Washington currently has a 50% extra tariff on imports of Indian goods after the rate was doubled in late August. The question is not only whether this will benefit the US economy, but also how it will reshape India's trade strategies and the global system.

To evaluate the consequences, it is useful to revisit America's most infamous protectionist experiment: the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (SHT) of 1930. While different in design, the comparison highlights the risk of escalating tariff wars.

The SHT was a blanket hike that raised du...