New Delhi, March 13 -- The US-India economic partnership is the envy of many. But our joint mission of achieving $500 billion in bilateral trade by 2030 stands on shaky ground. US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff policy, due to come into effect on 2 April, has upset global markets and will strain our trade relations. India must keep its eyes wide open at this time of heightened global uncertainty and consider three scenarios that may unfold.

A full-blown trade war: A trade war triggered by reciprocal tariff hikes can upend bilateral trade and is not unlikely. India imposes an average tariff of around 15% on US imports, and the US imposes around 4% on Indian imports. This means the US may hike tariffs by around 10 -11 percentage...