New Delhi, Oct. 29 -- Forecasting the rupee-dollar exchange rate is a tough ask at the best of times. In a world of Trumpian volatility, it is near impossible. Between 5 November 2024, when Donald Trump was re-elected as the US president, and 21 October 2025, the rupee has lost over 4% against the US dollar. While that's a steep drop, it is nowhere close to the rupee's worst performance. On average, the rupee falls about 2-3% against the dollar annually; in crisis years, the depreciation is much higher. Yet, the current weakening of the rupee has generated a great deal of discussion and concern. This can be attributed to two reasons.

One, an exchange rate of 100 rupees to a dollar is an important psychological barrier: as the rate approa...