New Delhi, Dec. 1 -- India's 8.2% growth in GDP reported for the second quarter of 2025-26 sprang a surprise. It exceeded expectations and took the first half's pace of economic expansion to 8%. This has led economists to revise upwards the entire year's rate of growth to around 7.5%. The good news is bound to cheer markets.

However, it would not be out of place to temper this moment of optimism with a reality check.

The 8.2% number for the three months from July to September rides on the back of a strong 9.1% uptick in manufacturing. This is at odds with the index for industrial production, which averaged under 4% over those months, and also data on the core sector, which registered cumulative growth of 2.9% over April-September.

Bear...