New Delhi, April 30 -- In today's global economy, uncertainty has become the only certainty. One can hardly miss the overwhelming sense of 'uncertainty' that permeates nearly every news story. Yet, beneath this pervasive terminology lies a fundamental question: What does 'uncertainty' mean, and how does it shape our economic and financial landscape?

When economists and policymakers discuss uncertainty, they refer to several distinct phenomena that differ from mere risks (whose probabilities can be estimated). First, there's uncertainty about outcomes. How will inflation respond to current monetary policy? Will we see a recession or a soft landing? Second, policy uncertainty looms large. What will be the next moves by central banks or gov...