New Delhi, Jan. 7 -- For stock market investors, January's message is familiar: expect turbulence before the Union budget and don't be surprised if calm returns soon after.

Despite improved data access over the years and clearer communication from policymakers, budget-related volatility persists in the days leading up to the event. What moves markets is less about the fine print and more about interpretations and reactions to the announcements.

That process is already underway. The India Vix, or volatility index, has already jumped around 8% during the first five trading days of 2026. While the fear gauge still hovers near 10, January is shaping up to be a month of heightened volatility, suggesting that market swings could intensify as ...