New Delhi, June 10 -- India's exports to the US jumped at the start of 2025, as tariff threats and global uncertainty prompted a frontloading of trade. But the coming months may test the resilience of this momentum amid a turbulent global trade reset.

In the January-March (Q4) quarter, the surge in shipments helped FY25 end with an 11.8% rise in US-bound exports-even as India's overall exports barely grew. The US remained India's largest trading partner for the fourth straight year, with its share in India's exports rising to 20% in 2025, from about 10% in 2010.

Over the past 15 years, trade between the two nations has grown steadily. In each of the three five-year periods since 2010, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of exports to...