New Delhi, June 5 -- An X post recently illustrated an age-old truth about markets and human nature perfectly. The author said India's macroeconomic indicators are looking splendid-GDP growth exceeding estimates, inflation under control, currency stability, and room for rate cuts. The conclusion? We're entering a "virtuous cycle" of prosperity.

It's a compelling narrative, and like most compelling narratives during good times, it suffers from a familiar problem.

"Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan," as the old saying goes. And nowhere is this more evident than in the way we construct stories about economic cycles and market movements.

When economic indicators align favourably-as they apparently do now-the explanations f...