New Delhi, Aug. 4 -- The inflation trajectory in 2025 has evolved rapidly. Consumer prices are falling faster than expected, wholesale prices are in mild deflation, and food prices-once a source of macroeconomic volatility-have turned sharply benign. On the other hand, recent high-frequency growth data has been mixed, with some indicators showing a sequential pick-up in economic activity while others remain subdued.

The recent US announcement to impose a 25% tariff plus penalties on India's exports has added another layer of uncertainty to the economic outlook. This has reignited debate around further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). But despite the favourable inflation data and mixed growth trend, the central bank may...