New Delhi, May 4 -- India could grow at 6.5% in FY26-defying projections-if a trade deal with the US is wrapped up in the next six months, Niti Aayog member Arvind Virmani said.

"No matter the global uncertainty, a clear and definite bilateral trade agreement by September-October would be enough to get growth back to 6.5%," Virmani told Mint.

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But if this uncertainty persists until December, that growth won't materialize, he added.

Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered India's FY26 growth forecast to 6.2% from 6.5%, citing trade risks from the US-led global tariff war.

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