New Delhi, Jan. 23 -- Pankaj Pandey, the head of research at ICICI Securities, expects modest capital expenditure growth in the Union Budget 2026, given the high base of Rs.11.2 lakh crore. He believes defence and railways may see increased allocations, but sees limited scope for new measures to boost consumption. In an interview with Mint, Pandey shares his expectations for Budget 2026, early Q3 earnings trends, and how investors should invest amid rising geopolitical risks. Here are edited excerpts of the interview:

We expect Budget 2026 to be largely a continuation of the government's focus on manufacturing, capex, and fiscal prudence, with some additional measures and announcements expected to boost exports amid global trade uncertai...