New Delhi, Jan. 30 -- India goes into the Union budget with what looks like a "Goldilocks" macro mix: growth is steady, inflation seems under control, the fiscal glide path is intact, and sovereign ratings are up a notch. Yet, the economy is sending mixed signals that the budget cannot ignore. We need a budget for tomorrow's challenges rather than yesterday's comfort.

The output of the eight core industries grew at 2.6% year-on-year in April-December of FY26, one of the slowest pace in a decade, and it was broad-based, including contraction in natural gas, crude oil and coal. This indicates a subdued industrial pulse and that growth momentum is narrower than the headline narrative suggests.

Public capital expenditure (capex) has been th...