New Delhi, July 10 -- Much like the dog that didn't bark inThe Adventure of Silver Blaze by British crime writer and creator of Sherlock Holmes, Arthur Conan Doyle, one of the biggest puzzles after US President Donald Trump's 2 April edict of a 10% tariff on all imports is its remarkably subdued effect on inflation in America.

At first, the general consensus-not limited to doomsayers-was that growth would fall and inflation rise as a direct outcome. Stagflation, or slower growth amid higher inflation, was the broad prognosis for the US economy and thence for the rest of the world's economies.

So far, what we have seen instead is a slowdown for sure-US output contracted 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025-but barely a blip on the price fro...