New Delhi, Feb. 8 -- Markets love certainty, or rather its appearance. That is why our equity market cheered the announcement of an interim India-US trade deal framework even though the 'fine print' is still not fully in the public domain. Its 18% reciprocal tariff on Indian-origin goods entering the US has been treated as a diplomatic trophy and a commercial windfall. But trade deals, like monsoon rains, are judged not by the first thunderclap but by rainfall distribution.

The joint statement issued by the White House says that this is a framework for an interim agreement, with negotiations due for a broader bilateral trade agreement.

Apart from the US commitment to apply an 18% reciprocal tariff on Indian goods, it signals tariff remo...