Afghanistan, Jan. 2 -- For decades, predictions about the collapse of Iran's ruling system have surfaced with near-cyclical regularity, often following elections tightly controlled by clerical oversight bodies or waves of street protests crushed by force. What distinguishes the opening weeks of 2026 from previous moments, however, is not merely the scale of unrest but the convergence of pressures bearing down on a deeply authoritarian-if not outright totalitarian-state that appears increasingly strained in its ability to manage crisis through repression alone.
Iran's political system remains centered on unelected clerical authority, enforced by a powerful security apparatus and justified through religious ideology. Independent watchdogs ha...