India, Oct. 14 -- The subtext of the seat deal announced by the NDA for the upcoming Bihar assembly polls is that the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) is no longer in pole position. Since 2005, the JD(U) has made it a point to contest more seats than the BJP in all assembly polls, sending out the message that the former, which claims the inheritance of Mandal politics in the state, is the coalition leader. This time, the BJP and the JD(U) will contest the same number of seats - 101 each - suggesting an impending transition in Bihar politics. The shift in the balance of power within the NDA is also a reflection of a generational change at the top in the making - it has been looming since the sub-par showing of the JD(U) in the last assembly election, and needs to be seen in the context of the indifferent health of chief minister (CM) Nitish Kumar. That finer points of the seat deal remain open suggests unresolved tensions within the alliance. Mandal and its message of electoral empowerment of OBCs have determined the political imaginary in Bihar since the 1990s. Between Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar, it completed a political arc that forced all other groups to align with either of the two leaders, who spun the narrative in the state. The BJP was wise enough to read the mood on the ground, play second fiddle to JD(U), and expand its footprint in the state by riding with Kumar. In 2025, the signs are evident: Kumar is now more of an NDA icon rather than the general of its troops, useful to consolidate the non-Yadav OBC votes, especially the extremely backward castes (EBCs), and to emphasise the "jungle raj" under Lalu and the RJD. In some ways, Lalu's retreat from electoral politics may have diminished the electoral utility of Kumar, though his legacy as a Mandal face and "sushasan babu" (good-governance leader) makes the NDA campaign a layered one. Not surprisingly, one of the interesting questions regarding the outcome is about Kumar and the JD(U). In the 2020 assembly elections, the BJP won 74 of the 110 seats it contested and ended up with a vote share of 19.46%, ahead of the JD(U), which won 43 of the 115 seats it fought with a vote share of 15.39. Can Kumar rally his cadre, consolidate his support base, and guard his ground this time around? A third player, Jan Suraaj Party, in the fray can upset the bipolar character of Bihar elections and influence the outcome, just as Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party-Ram Vilas Paswan upset the JD(U)'s prospects in 2020 (it is now part of the NDA). November 14 will be interesting....