No complacency on growth headwinds
India, Sept. 1 -- At 7.8%, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the June quarter was a happy surprise for many analysts. This, perhaps, has more to do with inflation adjustment rather than an extraordinarily high growth momentum in the economy. To be sure, this is just a statistical tailwind and not some sinister attempt to make the numbers look better than they are. Even without the indexation tailwind, the Indian economy would have continued to do well and retain its position as the fastest-growing major economy in the world. Having said that, is there a larger takeaway from the GDP data? Three things can be flagged.
The otherwise excellent 7.8% print should not induce complacency on the external headwinds to growth that are gathering momentum. The disruption of 50% US tariff and its disproportionate impact on India's labour-intensive manufacturing pockets will have to be tracked carefully to unleash effective mitigation.
While low inflation has generated tailwinds for real growth, it also means a lower nominal GDP growth. It is the latter that is the base for revenue collection and, by extension, the fiscal math. The FY26 Union budget had already marginally eroded the tax buoyancy, thanks to the revision of income tax slabs. The proposed GST (goods and services tax) rationalisation will add to the problem. These two, coupled with a probable percentage point or more shortfall in the budget's assumed nominal GDP growth, can create complications for the fiscal path for the rest of the year.
Neither of these two factors will cause deep disruption or crisis for the Indian economy in the near term. However, what is also true is that the statistical boost to GDP numbers does not take the Indian economy closer to resolving its structural challenges in the medium to long term. The key, therefore, is to keep working on, and, now more than ever, expediting structural reform....
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