India, Dec. 13 -- On February 12, 2026, Bangladesh will hold its first general election after the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina government more than a year ago, quelling speculation about the caretaker administration's commitment to holding polls. Hasina's party, the Awami League, is barred from contesting because the poll panel has suspended its registration. Most trends point to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) winning the highest number of seats, followed by the Jamaat-e-Islami. Jamaat was banned under the Hasina regime but has re-emerged after the uprising of 2024, with the interim government in Dhaka withdrawing measures instituted by previous regimes to check Islamists and radical elements. The National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by a group of student leaders who led the 2024 protests, has been unable to fashion itself into real political force - though detractors of Muhammad Yunus, the head of the interim government, argued that many of his actions, such as dragging out the process of organising elections, were aimed at strengthening the hands of the students. The NCP is expected to fare worse than both the BNP and Jamaat. In addition to the polls, voters will participate in a referendum on the so-called "July Charter", a declaration finalised by political parties and the interim government for constitutional, electoral and administrative reforms to enhance representation of women in parliament, set term limits for prime ministers, increase presidential powers, and expand judicial independence and fundamental rights. The Awami League has rejected the election schedule, saying that the caretaker administration cannot ensure "a fair and normal environment" for the polls. It has announced protests, though it remains to be seen how much street power it can mobilise at a time when most of its senior leadership has fled Bangladesh. Hasina's authoritarian streak has harmed the party's standing among the people, but it retains a dedicated cadre base. The polls could be a salve for the country that saw hundreds killed in widespread violence, including a crackdown on protesters by the security forces. The wounds remain, as do deep fissures in society, and a democratically-elected government will be better placed to address these issues than the interim government, several of whose actions are viewed by critics as transgressions into areas better handled by an elected administration. The election announcement, however, presents a dilemma for India, which has insisted on free, fair, inclusive, and participatory polls in Bangladesh. While India must welcome the poll date announcement, it will have to decide whether it must insist on a more participatory exercise. Another issue is Dhaka's call for Hasina's extradition - New Delhi has said it is looking into this, after a Bangladesh tribunal sentenced the former prime minister to death over the violence during the 2024 protests. At the same time, New Delhi must begin preparing to engage with a BNP-led government in Dhaka, especially given the party's history of animosity towards India and earlier links to forces that backed the insurgency in the Northeast. BNP leaders have signalled a change in their party's stance towards India, raising hopes for a fresh start. However, there are several reasons why India will have to remain cautious. The parties in the fray in the elections could still bank on an anti-India plank, given that they have often accused Hasina's regime of having a pro-India tilt. Any strengthening of radical political elements through the polls will have the potential to unsettle New Delhi....