India, Oct. 7 -- Elections in Bihar, India's third most populous state and a crucible of Mandal politics, have always been hugely competitive affairs with outcomes influencing political choices beyond the region. It will be no different this time as well. The results will shape power equations both in Patna and Delhi, and influence perceptions in other assembly elections due next year. The elections are taking place when Bihar's politics is in a phase of transition. Since the advent of Mandal politics, electoral politics here have revolved around the two poles of Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar. These two leaders, products of the anti-Emergency JP Movement and purveyors of the social justice agenda that emerged following the VP Singh government's adoption of the Mandal Commission report, have shaped both politics and governance in Bihar since 1990. Lalu and his Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) held office during the chaotic 1990s; Nitish and his Janata Dal-United or JD(U) have been in power since 2005 (sometimes in alliance with the RJD, but mostly with the BJP, the current partner). An ailing Lalu has left the RJD leadership to his son, Tejashwi Yadav, and this election is also likely to be the swansong of Nitish, whose Mandal plus sushasan (good governance) politics involved smart coalition building, patronage, and assurance of the rule of law. The incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 30 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar in the 2024 general election, of which 18 were accounted for by the JD(U), Lok Janshakti Party (RV), and Hindustani Awam Morcha. The NDA won a closely fought contest in 2020: It had a 15-seat edge over the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, though the difference in vote share between the two alliances was just 0.03%. Another win will strengthen the NDA at the Centre, whereas a setback can complicate the task of coalition managers. For the Opposition INDIA bloc, a good show may boost its prospects beyond Bihar. But there is another strand to this election. The retreat of Lalu and Nitish will open up the political space in Bihar, and the outcome in November will offer clues about the state's post-Mandal future. The duo kept politics in Bihar, unlike in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, tethered firmly to caste, and mostly avoided faith. Nitish broadened the framework of identity politics to include gender by tailoring public policy and affirmative action. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party has sought to transcend the identity trope and sell a politics of hope by focussing on development. In this competition of ideas, the two national parties, the BJP and Congress, have little to contribute, despite the former having a substantial cadre presence and a crowd-puller in Prime Minister Narendra Modi. What will Bihar's political future hold?...