Agenda-setting FTA with the UK
India, May 9 -- India and UK have finally signed the much-awaited free trade agreement. This marks the culmination of a long-drawn-out process which was put on hold last year on account of elections in both countries. While the trade deal is important on its own merits - it hopes to double the current value of bilateral trade of about 60 billion dollars by 2030 - what makes the agreement even more significant is the tectonic change in the global geoeconomic order since Donald Trump's re-election as the US president.
Given Trump's move to levy reciprocal tariffs on partner countries - subsequently put on hold to negotiate deals - bilateral trade agreements between countries are going to be the norm rather than the exception to global trade going forward. By clinching a deal with an important country in the advanced economy cohort, which offers it a large export market on no or negligible duties, India has clinched not just an important deal with the UK but also an important psychological edge in the ongoing negotiations with the US and the EU.
The broad contours of the deal seem to be a significant reduction if not outright elimination of tariffs on goods imports by the UK and India and regulatory concessions to service providers in both countries. The most important among these is the agreement to exempt them from social security contributions in both countries, which will significantly bring down costs for companies and, therefore, boost competitiveness. There is enough in the deal to please people and businesses in both countries. Indians can look forward to cheaper liquor and luxury cars from the UK and the British can buy cheaper prawns and textiles from India.
But will the deal also have a significant macroeconomic impact on both countries? The answer to this question is slightly more important for Britain than India. Keir Starmer's government is under immense pressure to deliver on growth in the context of the UK's precarious public finances and the squeeze they are putting on its welfare spending. The results of recently held local body polls in the UK underline the growing traction for the populist anti-immigrant politics of Reform UK. The Labour government is really banking on the trade deals - the UK also signed one with the US today - to boost growth and mass incomes in the country. India should make the most of this urgency by intelligently leveraging its luxury market with our competitive advantage in mass produced goods....
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