NEW DELHI, Jan. 15 -- Speculations are rife about a big announcement by the Modi government to assuage the rural economy before the 2019 elections. Many believe that a Universal Basic Income (UBI) scheme is a better way to do this. The idea has gained traction after the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is supposed to have made electoral gains from its cash transferbased Rythu Bandhu Scheme. Sikkim has announced that it will start a UBI scheme from the next financial year.

There are at least three reasons why any hasty decision on UBI will be counter productive. One, unlike farm loan waivers or minimum support price (MSP) hikes, UBI is neither a small, nor a one-off fiscal commitment. An analysis by Tadit Kundu published in Mint has estimate...