India, March 12 -- The Joe Biden administration's sanctions on Russian oil hit the latter's oil exports, sending the Brent crude benchmark above the $80 per barrel. Imagine a decidedly grim picture: The Donald Trump administration maintains the sanctions or fails to secure Congressional approval to lift them or even escalates restrictions, gradually throttling Russian oil, then has trouble with Iran, unleashing additional sanctions, and is locked in a tariff war with Canada.

Russia remains the world's third-largest oil producer despite the sanctions. It has overtaken Saudi Arabia as China's top supplier, largely through "shadow fleets" - ageing tankers that evade the US sanctions - that feed China's small, privatised teapot refineries. S...