India, Dec. 22 -- China-Japan ties are likely to see a prolonged chill after newly minted Japanese Prime Minister (PM), Sanae Takaichi, described a Taiwan Strait conflict as a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan. Beijing seized on the remark to push its narrative and signal regional dominance, even pressing Washington to toe its line. But the real story lies beyond the rhetoric. Japan is increasing defence spending and strengthening military posture, while US policy towards China remains competitive, even on the issue of Taiwan.

In order to grasp the evolution of the recent spat, it is first important to understand the context around Takaichi's remarks. First, under Japan's security legislation, declaring a situation "survival-thr...