India, April 4 -- Trump's expectations from the reciprocal tariff announcement assume that higher tariffs on imports will restore the competitiveness of domestically produced goods in the US and therefore help growth and employment in the domestic economy. The reality could be far more complicated than this because of various possibilities. Let us look at them one by one.

While the US is the largest importer in the world, it is also the second largest merchandise exporter in the world. If major importers of US products decide to retaliate against US tariffs - countries and groups such as China and the EU have indicated they could - then US exports could also lose their competitiveness in other foreign markets neutralising a large part of...