India, June 17 -- Russia invaded Ukraine. It hasn't been easy. It isn't over. Moscow is mired in the war. It lives with increased, almost crippling, dependence on China. And it suffers setbacks of the kind it did with Ukraine's recent drone attacks.

But Russia hasn't lost. It is arguably stronger than it has been at any point since February 2022. The project to internationally isolate Russia is dead. The main protagonist of that project, the US, now so desperately wants to do a deal with Russia that it is willing to barter away its investments in European security and Ukrainian unity and sovereignty.

If Russian President Vladimir Putin isn't yet taking the deal, it isn't surprising. A man is shaped by his experiences. And Putin's experi...