India, March 20 -- The tariff turmoil from the United States (US) is emerging as the biggest 'known unknown' for the global economy in 2025. While the protectionist measures of the Trump administration have most starkly brought to the fore its fragility, the global trade system has been severely tested in recent years by factors like the pandemic, geopolitics, and restive politics. The current international trade environment appears more challenging than ever. And it brings some critical policy lessons for India.

For some time now, the relative stability (and consequent benefits) of the World Trade Organization (WTO)-refereed trade regime has cultivated a wide-spread complacency with global trade ballooning nearly five times since the cr...