India, Aug. 14 -- On June 30, a month into the rainy season, India had received 8.9% more monsoon rains than normal. These were not evenly distributed across the country, but were in excess cumulatively - excesses of 42.2% over northwest India and 24.8% over central India, but deficiencies of 16.9% over east and northeast India and 2.7% over peninsular India.

This trend carried into the next month. As on July 31, India had received 6.4% excess monsoon rain. Again, these were spread unequally - 21.1% excess over northwest India, 22.9% excess over central India, a 22% deficiency over east and northeast India and a 2.3% shortfall over peninsular India.

Within the first 13 days of August, India's overall rain surplus has shrunk significantl...