India, Dec. 16 -- The IPL 2026 mini-auction in Abu Dhabi promises drama, but beneath the surface noise lies a mathematical reality: when you run the numbers, certain patterns become undeniable.

We build a probabilistic auction simulation incorporating official constraints - 77 slots, 31 overseas positions, team specific purses, and needs, alongside real market intelligence gathered from expert analysis, mock auctions, and franchise behaviour patterns. What emerged wasn't prophecy, but probability: a clear map of where auction logic leads when purse pressure meets role scarcity.

Here is what the numbers say about December 16, 2025.

Our simulation engine processed 369 players across 42 sets, executing 500 complete auction runs with:

Rea...