India, Dec. 23 -- Australia have barely reached Christmas and the Ashes is already out of England's hands again. The third Test in Adelaide sealed an unassailable 3-0 lead, and the conversation has shifted from "How do England win the urn?" to "Can England avoid a whitewash?" with Melbourne's Boxing Day Test next up.

That lopsided rhythm is exactly why the old line keeps resurfacing: the Ashes feels properly competitive when it's played in England. Strip away the noise and the numbers back the central idea - not a romantic myth, but as a data-driven pattern: England is where the Ashes most reliably behaves like a genuine rivalry, with outcomes shared and uncertainty preserved.

Start with the bluntest measure of competitiveness: how ofte...