India, Feb. 13 -- Cricket has a funny way of turning even the loudest rivalry into the quietest math problem. India vs Pakistan still feels like a coin toss in the gut - but on paper, in this tournament, it is not. On February 15 at the R. Premadasa Stadium, India arrive as the side that the table, the margin, and the momentum say is supposed to win.

Let us start with the boring stuff - because boring is usually true. India and Pakistan are both 2-0 in Group A, but they are not travelling at the same speed. India's net run rate is +3.050, while Pakistan's is +0.932. That gap is basically a neon sign that says - same points, different dominance. India's last outing was a demolition: 209 for 9 and then Namibia bundled out for 116, a 93-run...