India, April 16 -- India Meteorological Department's (IMD) first monsoon forecast -- it was released on April 15 - has projected above normal monsoon rainfall in 2025. This is one of the most keenly watched numbers not just by those who follow the weather but also economic analysts because of its implications for crop production and inflation. 75% of India's annual rainfall, after all, is recorded in the June-September period, which is the official monsoon season in the country.

However, an HT analysis of IMD's first forecasts since 2001 shows that there is good reason to be circumspect about these for two reasons. One, their statistical accuracy is worse than predicting a coin toss, and two, increasingly, even the headline number being ...