Bucharest, Romania, Sept. 6 -- In thinking about Afghanistan, pick a date over the next four or five months. That could well be when it became absolutely clear that the Taliban were incapable of governing Afghanistan and its 38 million people. The immediate symptoms: electricity, water, food, medical supplies and money became vanishing commodities. Other signs of failure included the insurgency that started in the north, spreading to desperate Afghans who had no future and no operation under Taliban rule except revolt.

The political and military wings of the Taliban remained in direct conflict. The former knew that a "kinder, gentler" version of sharia law was vital to unblocking sanctions, monetary reserves, and restarting the flow of f...