Nigeria, Aug. 5 -- Somewhere in the smoke-filled backroom of Nigeria's political casino, Ayo Fayose lit a rhetorical cigar and dropped a line so bold it could make a rookie politician choke on his campaign poster:

"Tinubu has taken over the South. He only needs little votes from the North."

You'd think he was reading out the final election result.

But let's pause the music, shuffle the cards, and look at the hand he's actually playing. Because this, folks, is not strategy. It's old-school propaganda in a shiny new wrapper-the kind Chase would say is "full of holes like a second-hand raincoat." -

Act One: The Southern Myth

Fayose would have you believe the South is wrapped up in a pretty APC bow, with Tinubu holding the ribbon.

But l...