Nigeria, Dec. 26 -- At the end of every discussion about reform, sequencing, incentives, and power lies a single, unavoidable question: what kind of political settlement governs the state?

Policies do not operate in a vacuum. They are expressions of underlying bargains, explicit or implicit, between elites, institutions, and society. Where that settlement rewards production, discipline, and long-term investment, sovereignty becomes possible. Where it rewards extraction, short-term consumption, and elite exit, sovereignty becomes structurally impossible.

Nigeria's problem is not a lack of ideas. It is the nature of its political settlement.

1. What a Sovereignty-Enabling Settlement Looks Like

A political settlement that enables soverei...